Liver Cancer Trends and Demographic Disparities Across 24 Texas Counties (2000–2019)
Data Source: IHME Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Dataset
1. Overview
This dashboard analyzes two decades (2000–2019) of liver cancer trends across 24 Texas counties, integrating temporal, demographic, and geographic dimensions.
It visualizes differences between male and female ratios, racial disparities, and spatial patterns using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), enabling public health insights into the evolving burden of liver cancer within the state.
The visualization combines:
- Temporal analysis — How rates have changed over 20 years.
- Demographic comparison — How differences between male and female ratios and ethnicities influence disparities.
- Geospatial insight — How counties differ in incidence and ethnicity ratios.
2. Ethnicity-Based Trends (Trend by Ethnicities Panel)
Statistical Findings:
- Males consistently exhibit the highest liver cancer rates, averaging approximately 0.000145 by 2019 — a 45% increase since 2000.
- Females show rates around 0.000075–0.000080, rising by about 20–25% over the same period.
- The “Both” category trends close to the male curve, reflecting males’ higher contribution to the overall rate.
Interpretation:
- This gap between male and female ratios aligns with established epidemiological evidence: men are 1.5–2× more likely to develop liver cancer.
- Contributing factors likely include higher prevalence of hepatitis infections, alcohol-related liver disease, metabolic syndrome, and occupational exposures.
- The rising slope across all genders indicates a growing disease burden, despite advances in prevention and treatment.
3. Ethnicity-Based Trends (Ethnicity Trends Panel)
Statistical Findings:
- Latino populations have the highest liver cancer rates across all years, followed by Black and Asian groups.
- White and AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) populations exhibit the lowest rates.
- Post-2010, Latino rates increase sharply, widening racial disparities over time.
Interpretation:
- The pattern suggests socioeconomic, cultural, and access-to-care differences may contribute to these disparities.
- Latino communities face higher exposure to metabolic, infectious, and lifestyle-related risk factors, while also experiencing barriers to early diagnosis.
- The relatively lower rates among White and AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) groups could reflect differences in population size, healthcare access, and screening prevalence.
4. Geographic Disparities (Male:Female Disparity Map)
Statistical Findings:
- The Male:Female Rate Ratio ranges from ~1.3 to ~2.2 across counties.
- Highest disparities occur in:
- Dallas (2.14)
- Navarro (2.11)
- Kaufman (2.03)
- Lower disparities appear in:
- Comanche (1.35)
- Jack (1.56)
- Stephens (1.60)
- Urban and semi-urban counties (Dallas, Tarrant, Ellis, Navarro) exhibit stronger male predominance compared to rural counties.
Interpretation:
- The geographic clustering implies potential environmental, behavioral, or socioeconomic risk differences across regions.
- Counties with greater male-female gaps may have more pronounced occupational or lifestyle risk factors among men, whereas lower ratios may suggest more impartial access to preventive care or differing exposure patterns.
5. County-Level Comparisons
Statistical Findings:
- Average rates across all counties:
- Male: ~0.000106
- Female: ~0.000059
- Both: ~0.000079
- Males have rates approximately 1.8× higher than females, consistent with the map’s findings.
Interpretation:
- The quantitative difference between genders confirms a systematic and statistically significant disparity across all counties.
- This gap underscores the need for public health strategies sensitive to the differences between males and females and awareness campaigns targeting male populations.
6. Temporal Statistical Patterns
Findings:
- From 2000 to 2019, liver cancer rates increased by 40–45% overall, with the sharpest rise occurring after 2010.
- Year-over-year growth averages:
- Males: +2.1% per year
- Females: +1.1% per year
- The average Male:Female ratio across all counties: ~1.74 ± 0.25 (SD).
Interpretation:
- The steepening trends indicate both rising incidence and possibly improved detection.
- Male increases are more pronounced, suggesting ongoing specific risk exposures sensitive to the differences between males and females or differential screening uptake.
7. Demographic Insights
| Dimension | Key Finding | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Male versus Female Ratio | Males exhibit 1.7–2.2× higher liver cancer rates than females | Reflects biological, behavioral, and environmental risk factors among men |
| Ethnicity | Latino and Black populations show the highest rates; White and AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) the lowest | Suggests racial and ethnic disparities in exposure, socioeconomic conditions, and healthcare access |
| Geography | Urban counties (Dallas–Tarrant region) show higher rates and steeper growth | Indicates concentration of risk factors and population density effects |
| Time | 45% increase in 20 years, sharper after 2010 | Suggests growing burden despite medical advances |
8. Epidemiological Interpretation
- The persistent male predominance is consistent with hormonal, metabolic, and behavioral explanations supported by prior global studies.
- The racial disparities emphasize systemic inequities in screening, healthcare access, and prevention programs.
- Urban counties (Dallas, Tarrant, Navarro) likely reflect population concentration, healthcare utilization, and lifestyle risk clustering.
- The steady upward trend since 2010 points toward increasing incidence from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), now a major contributor to liver cancer risk in the U.S.
9. Statistical Summary Table
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Mean Rate (Both) | 0.000079 | Overall average across all counties |
| Mean Male Rate | 0.000106 | 33% higher than combined average |
| Mean Female Rate | 0.000059 | 45% lower than male rate |
| Male:Female Ratio (Avg) | 1.74 ± 0.25 | Consistent disparity between male and female ratios |
| Range of Ratios (Counties) | 1.3 – 2.2 | Spatial variability in gap between male and female ratios |
| YoY Growth (2000–2019) | +2.1% males / +1.1% females | Rising trends over time |
| Highest Ethnicity Rate | Latino | Highest burden group |
| Lowest Ethnicity Rate | AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) | Lowest observed rate |
10. Public Health Implications
This analysis reveals a clear, persistent, and widening demographic disparity in liver cancer across Texas:
- Men bear a disproportionate burden — requiring targeted screening for males versus females and behavioral risk interventions.
- Latino and Black populations face the steepest increases — calling for culturally tailored prevention efforts.
- Urban counties are focal points of higher risk — suggesting localized resource allocation for awareness, vaccination, and liver health programs.
- The 20-year increase indicates progressive disease escalation, not stabilization, necessitating enhanced surveillance and public health engagement.
11. Summary Conclusion
Over two decades, liver cancer rates across 24 Texas counties have risen steadily, with males experiencing rates nearly twice those of females.
Latino and Black populations show the highest risk levels, while AIAN (American Indian and Alaska Native) and White populations maintain the lowest.
The urban corridor of Dallas–Tarrant–Navarro exhibits both the highest rates and greatest disparity between males and females, signaling concentrated risk zones.
These findings underscore an urgent need for demographically focused prevention strategies, impartial healthcare access, and region-specific interventions to reduce liver cancer disparities in Texas.
