RESOURCE GUIDE • PREDICTIVE POLICING • CRIME ANALYSIS
What Can Predictive Policing Do?
Understanding how data, spatial analysis and forecasting can support evidence-informed crime analysis and public safety decision-making.
Predictive policing combines information with analytical methods to identify patterns, estimate risk and help agencies think proactively about crime problems, vulnerable places and potential interventions.
HERO IMAGE PLACEHOLDER
Recommended: Tarleton GIS crime map, hot-spot analysis or risk-surface visualization
THE BASIC IDEA
From Historical Patterns to Forward-Looking Analysis
Crime analysis has traditionally focused on understanding where, when and how crime has already occurred. Predictive approaches extend that work by using data and analytical methods to estimate where particular risks or patterns may emerge next.
The objective is not simply to generate a prediction. Useful analysis connects data, interpretation and intervention so that agencies can make better-informed decisions and evaluate what happens afterward.
KEY DISTINCTION
Prediction Is Not Certainty
Predictive analysis estimates risk and identifies patterns. It is an analytical aid designed to complement broader policing strategies, professional expertise and evaluation—not to provide certainty about future events.
WHAT CAN PREDICTIVE POLICING DO?
Eight Areas of Analytical Application
Predictive approaches can focus on places, crime patterns, victims, groups, potential offenders and investigative information.
01
At-Risk Locations
Identify people and activity directly affected by locations experiencing elevated risk.
02
Vulnerable Populations
Identify groups that may face elevated risk of victimization for particular types of crime.
03
Crime Series
Determine whether multiple incidents display characteristics consistent with a connected crime series.
04
Investigative Leads
Use available incident, victim and other partial data to help identify potential investigative leads.
05
Offending Risk
Analyze available information to estimate patterns associated with elevated risk of future offending.
06
Group Violence
Identify situations in which available indicators suggest increased risk of violent conflict between groups.
07
Environmental Risk
Identify geographic and environmental features associated with elevated crime risk.
08
High-Risk Areas
Identify geographic areas where available data indicate an increased risk of future crime.
COMMON ANALYTICAL TOOLS
Methods Used to Detect Patterns and Risk
Predictive policing draws on established crime-analysis methods as well as more advanced spatial and statistical approaches.
01
Database Queries
Computer-assisted searches and integration of information across multiple databases.
02
Spatiotemporal Analysis
Analyze how crime patterns vary simultaneously across geographic space and time.
03
Near-Repeat Modeling
Examine whether a crime temporarily increases risk for similar incidents nearby.
04
Risk Terrain Analysis
Examine environmental features and places associated with elevated crime risk.
05
Advanced Hot Spots
Use spatial methods to identify concentrations and emerging patterns of crime.
ANALYTICAL PROCESS
Prediction Is Part of a Larger Decision Cycle
Effective predictive analysis connects information, statistical interpretation, operational decisions and evaluation.
01
Collect
Bring together relevant crime, incident, place and contextual information.
02
Analyze
Use spatial, temporal and statistical methods to identify patterns and relationships.
03
Estimate
Generate risk estimates, forecasts or analytical priorities based on observed patterns.
04
Respond & Evaluate
Use analysis to inform an appropriate response and evaluate whether the strategy produced the intended result.
LEARN MORE
Predictive Policing & Crime Analysis Resources
Explore research, analytical methods and evidence-based policing resources from federal agencies and academic research centers.
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF JUSTICE
Overview of Predictive Policing
An NIJ overview of predictive policing, analytical approaches and their relationship to established policing strategies.
NIJ-SPONSORED RESEARCH
The Role of Crime Forecasting
A comprehensive reference guide examining predictive methods, analytical categories, implementation and evaluation.
RUTGERS UNIVERSITY
Center on Public Security
Research, training and resources related to geospatial public-safety methods, including risk terrain modeling.
BUREAU OF JUSTICE ASSISTANCE
Smart Policing Initiative
Evidence-based and data-driven approaches to persistent crime problems, research partnerships and policing innovation.
TEMPLE UNIVERSITY
Center for Security and Crime Science
Academic research on crime science, place-based approaches, policing, security and related public-safety problems.
RESEARCH • TRAINING • CRIME ANALYSIS
Explore Predictive & Analytical Policing Science at Tarleton
Learn more about the Institute’s current research projects, professional training and work at the intersection of crime analysis, spatial science and emerging technology.