{"id":783,"date":"2022-08-16T19:33:55","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T19:33:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/web.tarleton.edu\/crimeanalysis\/?page_id=783"},"modified":"2026-08-27T17:45:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T17:45:56","slug":"resources","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/resources\/","title":{"rendered":"What can predictive policing do?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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RESOURCE GUIDE \u2022 PREDICTIVE POLICING \u2022 CRIME ANALYSIS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Can Predictive Policing Do?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Understanding how data, spatial analysis and forecasting can support evidence-informed crime analysis and public safety decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predictive policing combines information with analytical methods to identify patterns, estimate risk and help agencies think proactively about crime problems, vulnerable places and potential interventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Explore Capabilities \u2193<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\u2190 Institute Home<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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HERO IMAGE PLACEHOLDER<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recommended: Tarleton GIS crime map, hot-spot analysis or risk-surface visualization<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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What It Can Do<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Common Tools<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Analytical Process<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Learn More<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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THE BASIC IDEA<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Historical Patterns to Forward-Looking Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Crime analysis has traditionally focused on understanding where, when and how crime has already occurred. Predictive approaches extend that work by using data and analytical methods to estimate where particular risks or patterns may emerge next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The objective is not simply to generate a prediction. Useful analysis connects data, interpretation and intervention so that agencies can make better-informed decisions and evaluate what happens afterward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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KEY DISTINCTION<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prediction Is Not Certainty<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Predictive analysis estimates risk and identifies patterns. It is an analytical aid designed to complement broader policing strategies, professional expertise and evaluation\u2014not to provide certainty about future events.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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WHAT CAN PREDICTIVE POLICING DO?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eight Areas of Analytical Application<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Predictive approaches can focus on places, crime patterns, victims, groups, potential offenders and investigative information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At-Risk Locations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Identify people and activity directly affected by locations experiencing elevated risk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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02<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vulnerable Populations<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Identify groups that may face elevated risk of victimization for particular types of crime.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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03<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crime Series<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Determine whether multiple incidents display characteristics consistent with a connected crime series.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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04<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investigative Leads<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Use available incident, victim and other partial data to help identify potential investigative leads.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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05<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Offending Risk<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Analyze available information to estimate patterns associated with elevated risk of future offending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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06<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Group Violence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Identify situations in which available indicators suggest increased risk of violent conflict between groups.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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07<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environmental Risk<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Identify geographic and environmental features associated with elevated crime risk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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08<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High-Risk Areas<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Identify geographic areas where available data indicate an increased risk of future crime.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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COMMON ANALYTICAL TOOLS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Methods Used to Detect Patterns and Risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Predictive policing draws on established crime-analysis methods as well as more advanced spatial and statistical approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Database Queries<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Computer-assisted searches and integration of information across multiple databases.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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02<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spatiotemporal Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Analyze how crime patterns vary simultaneously across geographic space and time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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03<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Near-Repeat Modeling<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Examine whether a crime temporarily increases risk for similar incidents nearby.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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04<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risk Terrain Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Examine environmental features and places associated with elevated crime risk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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05<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Advanced Hot Spots<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Use spatial methods to identify concentrations and emerging patterns of crime.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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ANALYTICAL PROCESS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prediction Is Part of a Larger Decision Cycle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Effective predictive analysis connects information, statistical interpretation, operational decisions and evaluation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Collect<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bring together relevant crime, incident, place and contextual information.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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02<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyze<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Use spatial, temporal and statistical methods to identify patterns and relationships.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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03<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estimate<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Generate risk estimates, forecasts or analytical priorities based on observed patterns.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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04<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Respond & Evaluate<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Use analysis to inform an appropriate response and evaluate whether the strategy produced the intended result.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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LEARN MORE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predictive Policing & Crime Analysis Resources<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Explore research, analytical methods and evidence-based policing resources from federal agencies and academic research centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF JUSTICE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overview of Predictive Policing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

An NIJ overview of predictive policing, analytical approaches and their relationship to established policing strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Visit NIJ \u2192<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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NIJ-SPONSORED RESEARCH<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Role of Crime Forecasting<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A comprehensive reference guide examining predictive methods, analytical categories, implementation and evaluation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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View Research \u2192<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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RUTGERS UNIVERSITY<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Center on Public Security<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Research, training and resources related to geospatial public-safety methods, including risk terrain modeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Visit Rutgers \u2192<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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BUREAU OF JUSTICE ASSISTANCE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smart Policing Initiative<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Evidence-based and data-driven approaches to persistent crime problems, research partnerships and policing innovation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Explore BJA \u2192<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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TEMPLE UNIVERSITY<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Center for Security and Crime Science<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Academic research on crime science, place-based approaches, policing, security and related public-safety problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Visit Temple \u2192<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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RESEARCH \u2022 TRAINING \u2022 CRIME ANALYSIS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Explore Predictive & Analytical Policing Science at Tarleton<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Learn more about the Institute\u2019s current research projects, professional training and work at the intersection of crime analysis, spatial science and emerging technology.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Explore the Institute \u2192<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Training Resources<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RESOURCE GUIDE \u2022 PREDICTIVE POLICING \u2022 CRIME ANALYSIS What Can Predictive Policing Do? Understanding how data, spatial analysis and forecasting can support evidence-informed crime analysis and public safety decision-making. Predictive …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":912,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"functions-assets\/subsite-hero-page-template.php","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-783","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"coauthors":[],"author_meta":{"author_link":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/author\/","display_name":""},"relative_dates":{"created":"Posted 4 years ago","modified":"Updated 2 weeks ago"},"absolute_dates":{"created":"Posted on August 16, 2022","modified":"Updated on August 27, 2026"},"absolute_dates_time":{"created":"Posted on August 16, 2022 7:33 pm","modified":"Updated on August 27, 2026 5:45 pm"},"featured_img_caption":"","featured_img":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/233\/2026\/08\/Gemini_Generated_Image_ng5ql4ng5ql4ng5q.jpg","series_order":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/28"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=783"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/783\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":917,"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/783\/revisions\/917"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tarleton.edu\/crime-analysis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}