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This is a brief list of recent and current research
material. The papers are not yet available for download, but I
should have them up reasonably soon.
- Rivals To Power. Provides case summaries,
full sources for observations, and new participant-level
data on strength and battle-deaths in civil wars,
1816-present. In progress: Book under contract with CQ
Press.
- Reluctant Leviathans: The Puzzle of (Non)Intervention
in Intercommunal War. - This contains an embryonic
theory of intercommunal war within states. In
progress: After further scrutiny, formal theory will be
tested using data on different war types. Presented at
International Studies Association 2011 and Peace Science
Society (International), October 2011
- Taking Historians Seriously? The Changing Role of
Military History in Political Science. - This paper
reviews the use of military history by political scientists
and argues that the increasing reliance on press accounts
for conflict data, particularly by automated systems, is
less accurate that relying on expert judgments by military
or political historians. Suggests reasons for the growth of
the divide between the disciplines since 1960.
- Sources of Bias in Civil War Datasets (with Breann
Crane) - Subjects civil war lists to power-law analysis
and finds reason to believe that cases below about 1000
battle-deaths are substantially undercounted and that those
which are counted are non-representative, biasing analyses
that include them. In progress: Using newly-collected
data on civil conflicts in a subsample of African
country-years to test the predictions of bias.
Presented at International Studies Association, 2010.
- Civil Wars: The Military Dimension -- Uses the
data on civil war-participants in the Americas to test
theories of civil war termination. In progress:
Awaiting global dataset.
- Organized Anarchy: The Changing Structure of Civil
Wars. - This paper uses the first draft of the civil war
participants dataset to examine the structure (dyadic,
extended-dyadic, complex) of civil wars since 1816.
Presented at ISA 2007.
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