Foreign Policy Make-Up Lesson: Decision Models

1. Review your notes from the first day of class, especially the decision-making models in the chart below:

Model	Actors	Goals	Method	Key Concepts
State as Rational Actor (Realism)	States	National Interest	Maximize Expected Utility	Goals, Options, Consequences, Policy Outcome
Organizational Processes	Roles: Top decision-makers in organization	Interests of organization	Satisficing	SOPs Incrementalism
Governmental/Bureaucratic Politics	Individuals: Throughout government	Personal Goals	Bargaining	Players 51-49 principle
Groupthink	Small group: Leader and key advisors	Leader’s goals	Direct pressure Unanimity	“Circling the Wagons” Stereotyping

2. Now that you have some ideas about how intelligence can go wrong (from last session and from the online article) and some ideas about how internal debates shape foreign policy outcomes (from the many, many examples in Herring, especially the Cuban Missile Crisis), you should be able to apply these concepts to a major US foreign policy initiative: the Iraq War. Download this worksheet, which you will probably need to fill in by hand (the boxes are tiny).

3. Watch the film, "No End In Sight," about the origins of the anti-US insurgency in Iraq. The film is often called anti-war, but I believe many if not most of its participants were pro-war but simply disagreed about policy implementation. I think it's the best film made about Iraq -- it was nominated for an Oscar and is absolutely perfect for our class).

As you watch the film, fill in the worksheet when you see evidence of rational decision-making, organizational processes, governmental politics, or groupthink. Feel free to use additional paper if you run out of room.

How to watch the film:

A. If you subscribe to Netflix, you should be able to view it instantly online in something close to DVD quality.

B. If (like me), you are not a Netflix subscriber, then you need to view it online from Google Video, divided into three parts (Part I | Part II | Part III)

4. Write one paragraph summarizing your findings during the film -- which model best explained the actions of the United States during this crucial period? Then indicate whether it really matters whether decision-makers are well-informed about other cultures and peoples, given your findings on how decisions actually get made. For example, you could find that lack of Arabic-speaking personnel was a problem, or you might find that these were precisely the people who were excluded from the operation (in which case politics and not ignorance is to blame).

5. Turn the worksheet above, your paragraph (which you might simply handwrite on the back of the worksheet), and the regular worksheet due on Monday, September 23.